The Childcare Landscape Ahead: What to Expect This Year

As we begin a new year, I want to take a moment to recognize the incredible strength, compassion, and leadership you continue to show in our sector. In 2026, you are balancing more than ever and doing it with heart.

At Sentient, we have been listening closely to what matters most to directors like you. This January update brings together the key trends shaping childcare in Ontario right now and how they may affect your centre in the months ahead.

Government Funding: Stability for 2026

Ontario enters 2026 with continued support under the Canada-Wide Early Learning and Child Care (CWELCC) agreement. With the recent one-year extension, funding has been secured to maintain current base fee caps through 2026, providing predictability for families and operators alike.

At the same time, Ontario’s cost-based funding model remains in effect, tying funding more closely to real operating costs, such as wages, rent, and supplies. While this approach is a positive shift, many operators continue to navigate the reality that costs are rising faster than funding adjustments.

What this means for centres:

• Fee stability for families continues.
• Greater accountability and documentation around costs remains essential.
• Financial planning and forecasting are more important than ever.

Childcare Availability: Demand Still Outpaces Supply

Affordable childcare has significantly increased demand across Ontario, particularly for infant and toddler spaces. Despite thousands of new licensed spaces being created, waitlists remain long in many communities.

In practice, many centres have physical capacity but cannot operate at full enrollment due to staffing shortages, not licensing limitations.

What we are seeing:

• Continued pressure on infant and toddler programs
• Longer waitlists, especially in urban and high-growth regions
• Increased reliance on supply educators to keep rooms open

Workforce Update: Progress, but Not Yet Relief

The childcare workforce remains the most critical pressure point in 2026.

RECE base wages have increased again this year, with mandated minimums now in-and-around the $25/hour range. While this represents progress, competition with schools and other sectors continues to impact recruitment and retention.

Training pathways, accelerated ECE programs, and qualification-upgrade initiatives are helping, but staffing remains the primary constraint on growth across the sector.

What centre leaders are navigating daily:

• Difficulty recruiting qualified educators
• Increased burnout and turnover
• Greater dependence on supply staffing to maintain ratios and continuity

Curriculum and Pedagogy: Consistency and Quality

Ontario’s early years framework remains rooted in How Does Learning Happen? and its four foundations: Belonging, Well-Being, Engagement, and Expression.

In 2026, the focus is less on new curriculum and more on:

• Deepening the quality of implementation
• Strengthening inclusion and social-emotional learning
• Supporting smooth transitions into kindergarten
• Using reflective and emergent curriculum practices

Quality, not speed of expansion, continues to be the defining priority.

Looking Ahead

2026 is shaping up to be a year of building growth and stability.

Centres are being asked to deliver high-quality care in a complex environment, while balancing affordability, staffing realities, compliance, and family expectations. We recognize how challenging this is, and we remain committed to supporting centres with reliable staffing solutions, practical insights, and responsive partnership.

Our promise remains simple: We’ve Got You.

With 600+ compassionate, vetted educators, a 95%+ fill rate, and a commitment to making your day easier, we are not just filling shifts. We are here to lift some of the weight off your shoulders by filling your staffing gaps with qualified educators.

Thank you for the work you do every day to support children, families, and educators across Ontario.

Warm regards,

Gregory Dixon
Director of Business Development
Sentient HR Services Inc.